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Mahrizal, L. Lanier Nalley, Bruce L. Dixon and Jennie Popp

Price premiums necessary to incentivize switching from conventional (inorganic) to organic cocoa (Theobroma cacao) production in Ghana are identified. Optimal, phased-replacement models for orchard management are used to determine when switching from conventional to organic is profitable. The decision is a function of orchard growth stage, price premiums, and yield loss. Results indicate that the net present value (NPV) of organic production under current market conditions is 21% lower than the NPV of conventional production. Analysis shows that, generally, the minimum price premium to convert to organic is just slightly lower, in percentage terms, than the yield reduction caused by growing organically.