Berry texture of grapes (Vitis labruscana Bailey, V. vinifera L., and their hybrids) can be characterized by two factors: 1) difficulty of breakdown in mastication and 2) firmness, which can be mechanically measured as deformation at first major peak (DFP) and maximum force (MF) of the force-deformation curve in flesh puncture tests. Crisp texture (easily breakable and firm flesh texture), one of the most important factors for the quality of table grapes, corresponds to a combination of small DFP (≤2.5 mm) and large MF (≥0.9 N). Obtaining offspring with crispy flesh is a primary objective in grape interspecific hybrid breeding at the National Institute of Fruit Tree Science, Japan. In this study, the expected proportion (EP) of offspring with crispy flesh as a genotypic value was estimated using a population consisting of 23 full-sib families each with eight offspring. An analysis of variance in the offspring, which estimated between-family and within-family variances, and the regression analysis of the family mean (Fm) of eight offspring in each full-sib family on mid-parental value (MP) were conducted for DFP and MF. The results revealed that the total genetic variation in offspring was mostly explained by the variance due to the regression and the within-family variance for both DFP and MF. No significant heterogeneity of within-family variance was detected by Bartlett's test for either DFP or MF. Therefore, a simple model was used to calculate EP: Fm is solely determined by the regression of Fm on MP, and all families have an equal within-family genetic variance due to segregation. Since merely a weak correlation relationship existed between DFP and MF, its influence was omitted in calculating EP. The EP of offspring having crisp texture was estimated to be 11% for an MP value of DFP of 2.5 mm (DFP for `Italia'), 6% for a DFP of 3.5 mm (DFP for `Athens'), and 3% for a DFP of 4.5 mm (DFP for `Bath'); the MP value of MF was assumed to be 0.7 N (MF for `Steuben' and `Italia') in this calculation.
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