Forecasting Annual Vegetable Plantings

in HortTechnology
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  • 1 Extension Horticultural Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics; University of Idaho; Moscow, ID 83843; phone (208)882-0874; fax (208)885-5759

Vegetable producers and marketers make business decisions based on supply estimates. The U.S. Dept. of Agriculture provides estimates of planting intentions for field crops but not for most vegetable crops. This study developed models that can be used to forecast vegetable crop plantings. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the factors that influence plantings of potatoes and onions. Field crop planting intentions, industry structure, lagged values of plantings, prices received, price volatility, and the price of sugar beets were found to be significant factors. The models and/or methods used in this study should be useful to those interested in forecasting vegetable plantings.

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